Jonathan brushes off scandals

Abuja - Not many presidents could survive three multi-billion dollar government oil corruption scandals and a wave of cold-blooded killings and kidnappings of civilians bymilitants still holding hundreds of schoolgirls after six months.
President Goodluck Jonathan has not only survived, he will seek re-election in February stronger than ever, after five years in a job no one expected him to get.
Jonathan's support base within the ruling party is now unchallenged, a rare feat for the often fractious People's Democratic Party (PDP), while the main opposition APC coalition is split between two contestants for the presidency.
The government announced a ceasefire with Boko Haram rebels 10 days ago, ahead of talks in neighbouring Chad to secure the release of more than 200 girls seized from Chibok village in April in an abduction that shocked the world.
If the talks are successful it would help the president's image. But nothing has come of it yet and violence has since surged, with dozens more children kidnapped.
Jonathan has defended his overstretched military's efforts against a Boko Haram insurgency that has killed thousands. In the case of the failure to free the schoolgirls, he has said any rescue attempt would endanger their lives.



Meanwhile, apart from the security challenges, his government also has been best by corruption allegations.
A parliamentary report detailed a $6.8bn fuel subsidy fraud. A government investigation revealed corrupt cut price crude sales to oil majors that cost the treasury billions. And a former central banker has reported that between $10 an $20bn had been diverted by the state oil firm over 18 months between 2012 and last year.
The government pledged to investigate the first two cases and denied the third.

Patronage
Last month, South Africa froze two payments from the Jonathan administration totalling $15m that it suspected were for illegal arms deals. Nigeria said the deals were legal.
Yet it is a testament to Nigeria's complex mix of ethnic rivalry, patronage and intense competition for centralised oil wealth in Africa's top producer that Jonathan can brush off these various scandals and attract a high level of support.
Jonathan, a Christian southerner, was an accidental president, taking over in 2009 after President Umaru Yar'adua, a Muslim from the north, died from illness.
When Jonathan was elected to his own term in 2011, many in the north resented his decision to run, believing he had torn up an unwritten rule that power should rotate between mainly Muslim north and mainly Christian south every two terms.
Former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari, who lost to Jonathan in 2011, and defected PDP ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar are vying for the opposition APC ticket. Both launched bids in the past month, focusing on security and graft.
Roddy Barclay, senior Africa analyst at Control Risks, a political risk consultancy, sees two "principle factors for Jonathan's robust position in spite of the scandals and failings which have rocked his government".
"Firstly, the primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria," means an incumbent gets a huge advantage, and second, "the opposition lacks steadfast unity".
That marks a big change from less than a year ago. In December it was the PDP that was in crisis. Thirty seven lawmakers defected to the APC that month, demolishing the PDP's lower house majority. Rotimi Amaechi, powerful governor of the oil hub state of Rivers, also defected.
The same month, Jonathan's mentor and PDP Godfather, ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo, wrote a scathing letter saying it would be "fatally morally flawed" for Jonathan to seek re-election in 2015 because of corruption under his rule. Jonathan called the intervention "unjustifiable and indecorous".

Nigerian party politics
Ten months on and the APC has failed to capitalise. It has not agreed on a presidential candidate and several disillusioned APC figures have flipped to the PDP, underscoring the fluid nature of Nigerian party politics.
They include popular two-term ex-governor of Kano state Ibrahim Shakarau, a Buhari rival, and former anti-corruption chief Nuhu Ribadu, denying the APC a strong anti-graft platform, although Buhari still has strong anti-corruption credentials.
In June, the APC then lost a governorship election in southwestern Ekiti state to the ruling party.
"The opposition is cannabalising itself. Its top elites are vying against one another. That's a glide path for President Jonathan," said Eurasia Group's Philippe de Pontet.
"Had the APC sustained its momentum from 5-6 months ago ... we'd be in a different world."
On 2 December, the dynamic could shift when the party picks its candidate. Buhari earned a reputation for cracking down on corruption during his time in power in 1983-85, and most Nigerians agree he did not use the post to enrich himself, but it is not clear whether he would win votes from APC supporters in the south.
The emotional conflict felt by Barrister Isaac Matthew illustrates Jonathan's staying power.